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<title>Yield curve</title>

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<span id="openzim-page-title" class="mw-page-title-main"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Yield curve</span></span>

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</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">This article is about relationships among bond yields of different maturities. For other uses, see <a href="Yield_curve_(disambiguation)" class="mw-disambig" title="Yield curve (disambiguation)">Yield curve (disambiguation)</a>.</div>

<p>In <a href="Finance" title="Finance">finance</a>, the <b>yield curve</b> is a graph which depicts how the <a href="Yield_to_maturity" title="Yield to maturity">yields</a> on debt instruments – such as bonds – vary as a function of their years remaining to <a href="Maturity_(finance)" title="Maturity (finance)">maturity</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p><p>Those who issue and trade in forms of debt, such as loans and bonds, use yield curves to determine their value.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Shifts in the shape and slope of the yield curve are thought to be related to investor expectations for the economy and interest rates.

</p><p>Ronald Melicher and Merle Welshans have identified several characteristics of a properly constructed yield curve. It should be based on a set of securities which have differing lengths of time to maturity, and all yields should be calculated as of the same point in time. All securities measured in the yield curve should have similar credit ratings, to screen out the effect of yield differentials caused by credit risk.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For this reason, many traders closely watch the yield curve for <a href="United_States_Treasury_security" title="United States Treasury security">U.S. Treasury debt securities</a>, which are considered to be risk-free. Informally called "the Treasury yield curve", it is commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> More formal mathematical descriptions of this relationship are often called the <b>term structure of interest rates</b>.

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Significance_of_slope_and_shape">Significance of slope and shape</h2></div>

<p>Yield curves are usually upward sloping <a href="Asymptotically" class="mw-redirect" title="Asymptotically">asymptotically</a>: the longer the maturity, the higher the yield, with diminishing marginal increases (that is, as one moves to the right, the curve flattens out). The slope of the yield curve can be measured by the difference, or <i>term spread</i>, between the yields on two-year and ten-year <a href="U.S._Treasury_security" class="mw-redirect" title="U.S. Treasury security">U.S. Treasury Notes</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A wider spread indicates a steeper slope.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p><p>There are two common explanations for upward sloping yield curves. First, it may be that the market is anticipating a rise in the <a href="Risk-free_rate" title="Risk-free rate">risk-free rate</a>. If investors hold off investing now, they may receive a better rate in the future. Therefore, under the <a href="Arbitrage_pricing_theory" title="Arbitrage pricing theory">arbitrage pricing theory</a>, investors who are willing to lock their money in now need to be compensated for the anticipated rise in rates—thus the higher interest rate on long-term investments. Another explanation is that longer maturities entail greater risks for the investor (i.e. the lender). A <a href="Risk_premium" title="Risk premium">risk premium</a> is needed by the market, since at longer durations there is more uncertainty and a greater chance of events that impact the investment. This explanation depends on the notion that the economy faces more uncertainties in the distant future than in the near term. This effect is referred to as the liquidity spread. If the market expects more <a href="Volatility_(finance)" title="Volatility (finance)">volatility</a> in the future, even if interest rates are anticipated to decline, the increase in the risk premium can influence the spread and cause an increasing yield.

</p><p>The opposite situation can also occur, in which the yield curve is "inverted", with short-term interest rates higher than long-term. For instance, in November 2004, the yield curve for <a href="Gilt-edged_securities" title="Gilt-edged securities">UK Government bonds</a> was partially inverted. The yield for the 10-year bond stood at 4.68%, but was only 4.45% for the 30-year bond. The market's anticipation of falling interest rates causes such incidents. Negative <a href="Liquidity_premium" title="Liquidity premium">liquidity premiums</a> can also exist if long-term investors dominate the market, but the prevailing view is that a positive liquidity premium dominates, so only the anticipation of falling interest rates will cause an inverted yield curve. Strongly inverted yield curves have historically preceded economic recessions.

</p><p>The shape of the yield curve is influenced by <a href="Supply_and_demand" title="Supply and demand">supply and demand</a>: for instance, if there is a large demand for long bonds, for instance from <a href="Pension_fund" title="Pension fund">pension funds</a> to match their fixed liabilities to pensioners, and not enough bonds in existence to meet this demand, then the yields on long bonds can be expected to be low, irrespective of market participants' views about future events.

</p><p>The yield curve may also be flat or hump-shaped, due to anticipated interest rates being steady, or short-term volatility outweighing long-term volatility.

</p><p>Yield curves continually move all the time that the markets are open, reflecting the market's reaction to news. A further "<a href="Stylized_fact" title="Stylized fact">stylized fact</a>" is that yield curves tend to move in parallel; i.e.: the yield curve shifts up and down as interest rate levels rise and fall, which is then referred to as a "parallel shift".

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Types_of_yield_curve">Types of yield curve</h3></div>

<p>There is no single yield curve describing the cost of money for everybody. The most important factor in determining a yield curve is the currency in which the securities are denominated. The economic position of the countries and companies using each currency is a primary factor in determining the yield curve. Different institutions borrow money at different rates, depending on their <a href="Creditworthiness" class="mw-redirect" title="Creditworthiness">creditworthiness</a>.

</p><p>The yield curves corresponding to the bonds issued by governments in their own currency are called the government bond yield curve (government curve). Banks with high <a href="Bond_credit_rating" title="Bond credit rating">credit ratings</a> (Aa/AA or above) borrow money from each other at the <a href="LIBOR" class="mw-redirect" title="LIBOR">LIBOR</a> rates. These yield curves are typically a little higher than government curves. They are the most important and widely used in the financial markets, and are known variously as the <a href="LIBOR" class="mw-redirect" title="LIBOR">LIBOR</a> curve or the <a href="Swap_(finance)" title="Swap (finance)">swap</a> curve. The construction of the swap curve is described below.

</p><p>Besides the government curve and the LIBOR curve, there are <a href="Corporation" title="Corporation">corporate</a> (company) curves. These are constructed from the yields of bonds issued by corporations. Since corporations have less <a href="Creditworthiness" class="mw-redirect" title="Creditworthiness">creditworthiness</a> than most governments and most large banks, these yields are typically higher. Corporate yield curves are often quoted in terms of a "credit spread" over the relevant swap curve. For instance the five-year yield curve point for <a href="Vodafone" title="Vodafone">Vodafone</a> might be quoted as LIBOR +0.25%, where 0.25% (often written as 25 <a href="Basis_point" title="Basis point">basis points</a> or 25bps) is the credit spread.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Normal_yield_curve">Normal yield curve</h4></div>

<p>From the post-<a href="Great_Depression" title="Great Depression">Great Depression</a> era to the present, the yield curve has usually been "normal" meaning that yields rise as maturity lengthens (i.e., the slope of the yield curve is positive). This positive slope reflects investor expectations for the economy to grow in the future and, importantly, for this growth to be associated with a greater expectation that inflation will rise in the future rather than fall. This expectation of higher inflation leads to expectations that the <a href="Central_bank" title="Central bank">central bank</a> will tighten monetary policy by raising short-term interest rates in the future to slow economic growth and dampen inflationary pressure. It also creates a need for a risk premium associated with the uncertainty about the future rate of inflation and the risk this poses to the future value of cash flows. Investors price these risks into the yield curve by demanding higher yields for maturities further into the future. In a positively sloped yield curve, lenders profit from the passage of time since yields decrease as bonds get closer to maturity (as yield decreases, price <i>increases</i>); this is known as <b>rolldown</b> and is a significant component of profit in fixed-income investing (i.e., buying and selling, not necessarily holding to maturity), particularly if the investing is <a href="Leverage_(finance)" title="Leverage (finance)">leveraged</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p><p>However, a positively sloped yield curve has not always been the norm. Through much of the 19th century and early 20th century the US economy experienced trend growth with persistent <a href="Deflation" title="Deflation">deflation</a>, not inflation. During this period the yield curve was typically inverted, reflecting the fact that deflation made current cash flows less valuable than future cash flows (i.e. the purchasing power of $1 would increase over time). During this period of persistent deflation, a 'normal' yield curve was negatively sloped.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Steep_yield_curve">Steep yield curve</h4></div>

<p>Historically, the 20-year <a href="Treasury_bond" class="mw-redirect" title="Treasury bond">Treasury bond</a> yield has averaged approximately two percentage points above that of three-month Treasury bills. In situations when this gap increases (e.g. 20-year Treasury yield rises much higher than the three-month Treasury yield), the economy is expected to improve quickly in the future. This type of curve can be seen at the beginning of an economic expansion (or after the end of a recession). Here, economic stagnation will have depressed short-term interest rates; however, rates begin to rise once the demand for capital is re-established by growing economic activity.

</p><p>In January 2010, the gap between yields on two-year Treasury notes and 10-year notes widened to 2.92 percentage points, its highest ever.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Flat_or_humped_yield_curve">Flat or humped yield curve</h4></div>

<p>A flat yield curve is observed when all maturities have similar yields, whereas a humped curve results when short-term and long-term yields are equal and medium-term yields are higher than those of the short-term and long-term. A flat curve sends signals of uncertainty in the economy. This mixed signal can revert to a normal curve or could later result into an inverted curve. It cannot be explained by the Segmented Market theory discussed below.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Inverted_yield_curve">Inverted yield curve</h4></div>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">Inverted yield curve</a></div>

<p>Under unusual circumstances, investors will settle for lower yields associated with low-risk long-term debt if they think the economy will enter a recession in the near future. For example, the <a href="S%26P_500_Index" class="mw-redirect" title="S&P 500 Index">S&P 500</a> experienced a dramatic fall in mid 2007, from which it recovered completely by early 2013. Investors who had purchased 10-year Treasuries in 2006 would have received a safe and steady yield until 2015, possibly achieving better returns than those investing in equities during that volatile period.

</p><p>Economist <a href="Campbell_Harvey" title="Campbell Harvey">Campbell Harvey</a>'s 1986 dissertation<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> showed that an inverted yield curve accurately forecasts U.S. recessions. An inverted curve has indicated a worsening economic situation in the future eight times since 1970.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p><p>In addition to potentially signaling an economic decline, inverted yield curves also imply that the market believes inflation will remain low. This is because, even if there is a recession, a low bond yield will still be offset by low inflation. However, technical factors, such as a <a href="Flight_to_quality" class="mw-redirect" title="Flight to quality">flight to quality</a> or global economic or currency situations, may cause an increase in demand for bonds on the long end of the yield curve, causing long-term rates to fall. Falling long-term rates in the presence of rising short-term rates is known as "Greenspan's Conundrum".<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Relationship_to_the_business_cycle">Relationship to the business cycle</h2></div>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="Net_interest_margin" title="Net interest margin">Net interest margin</a> and <a href="Austrian_business_cycle_theory" title="Austrian business cycle theory">Austrian business cycle theory</a></div>

<p>The slope of the yield curve is one of the most powerful predictors of future economic growth, inflation, and recessions.

<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> One measure of the yield curve slope (i.e. the difference between 10-year Treasury bond rate and the 3-month Treasury bond rate) is included in the <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2">Financial Stress Index</a> published by the <a href="Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis" title="Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis">St. Louis Fed</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A different measure of the slope (i.e. the difference between 10-year Treasury bond rates and the <a href="Federal_funds_rate" title="Federal funds rate">federal funds rate</a>) is incorporated into the <a href="Conference_Board_Leading_Economic_Index" title="Conference Board Leading Economic Index">Index of Leading Economic Indicators</a> published by <a href="The_Conference_Board" title="The Conference Board">The Conference Board</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p><p>An inverted yield curve is often a harbinger of <a href="Recession" title="Recession">recession</a>. A positively sloped yield curve is often a harbinger of <a href="Inflation" title="Inflation">inflationary</a> growth. Work by Arturo Estrella and <a href="Tobias_Adrian" title="Tobias Adrian">Tobias Adrian</a> has established the predictive power of an inverted yield curve to signal a recession. Their models show that when the difference between short-term interest rates (they use 3-month T-bills) and long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury bonds) at the end of a federal reserve tightening cycle is negative or less than 93 basis points positive, a rise in unemployment usually occurs.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The <a href="Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_New_York" title="Federal Reserve Bank of New York">New York Fed</a> publishes a <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html">monthly recession probability prediction</a> derived from the yield curve and based on Estrella's work.

</p><p>All the recessions in the US since 1970 have been preceded by an inverted yield curve (10-year vs 3-month). Over the same time frame, every occurrence of an inverted yield curve has been followed by recession as declared by the <a href="National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research" title="National Bureau of Economic Research">NBER</a> business cycle dating committee.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The yield curve became inverted in the first half of 2019, for the first time since 2007.<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

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<caption>Recessions following yield curve inversion (all values in months unless noted)

</caption>

<th>Recession</th>

<th>Inversion start date</th>

<th>Recession start date</th>

<th>Time between inversion start and beginning of recession</th>

<th>Duration of inversion</th>

<th>Time between start of recession and NBER announcement</th>

<th>Time between disinversion and end of recession</th>

<th>Recession duration</th>

<th>Time between end of recession and NBER announcement</th>

<th>Inversion maximum (basis points)

</th></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Recession_of_1969%E2%80%931970" title="Recession of 1969–1970">1970 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−52

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="1973%E2%80%931975_recession" title="1973–1975 recession">1974 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−159

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">1980 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−328

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">1981–1982 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−351

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Early_1990s_recession" title="Early 1990s recession">1990 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−16

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Early_2000s_recession" title="Early 2000s recession">2001 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−70

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">2008–2009 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−51

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td><a href="COVID-19_recession" title="COVID-19 recession">COVID-19 recession</a></td>

<td align="right">−52

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td align="right">−182

</td></tr>

<tr>

<th colspan="3">Average since 1969</th>

<th align="right">−140.11

</th></tr>

<tr>

<th colspan="3">Standard deviation since 1969</th>

<th align="right">138.96

</th></tr></tbody></table>

<p>Estrella and others have postulated that the yield curve affects the <a href="Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">business cycle</a> via the balance sheet of banks (or <a href="Shadow_banking_system" title="Shadow banking system">bank-like financial institutions</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> When the yield curve is inverted, banks are often caught paying more on short-term deposits (or <a href="Repurchase_agreement" title="Repurchase agreement">other forms</a> of short-term wholesale funding) than they are making on new long-term loans leading to a loss of profitability and reluctance to lend resulting in a <a href="Credit_crunch" title="Credit crunch">credit crunch</a>. When the yield curve is upward sloping, banks can profitably take-in short-term deposits and make new long-term loans so they are eager to supply credit to borrowers. This eventually leads to a <a href="Economic_bubble" title="Economic bubble">credit bubble</a>.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Theory">Theory</h2></div><p>

There are three main economic theories attempting to explain how yields vary with maturity. Two of the theories are extreme positions, while the third attempts to find a middle ground between the former two.<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1305433154">

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Market_expectations_(pure_expectations)_hypothesis">Market expectations (pure expectations) hypothesis</h3></div>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="Expectations_hypothesis" title="Expectations hypothesis">Expectations hypothesis</a></div>

<p>This <a href="Hypothesis" title="Hypothesis">hypothesis</a> assumes that the various maturities are <a href="Substitute_good" title="Substitute good">perfect substitutes</a> and suggests that the shape of the yield curve depends on market participants' expectations of future interest rates. It assumes that market forces will cause the interest rates on various terms of bonds to be such that the expected final value of a sequence of short-term investments will equal the known final value of a single long-term investment. If this did not hold, the theory assumes that investors would quickly demand more of the current short-term or long-term bonds (whichever gives the higher expected long-term yield), and this would drive down the return on current bonds of that term and drive up the yield on current bonds of the other term, so as to quickly make the assumed equality of expected returns of the two investment approaches hold.

</p><p>Using this, <a href="Futures_contract" title="Futures contract">futures rates</a>, along with the assumption that <a href="Arbitrage" title="Arbitrage">arbitrage</a> opportunities will be minimal in future markets, and that futures rates are unbiased estimates of forthcoming spot rates, provide enough information to construct a complete expected yield curve. For example, if investors have an expectation of what 1-year interest rates will be next year, the current 2-year interest rate can be calculated as the compounding of this year's 1-year interest rate by next year's expected 1-year interest rate. More generally, returns (1+ yield) on a long-term instrument are assumed to equal the <a href="Geometric_mean" title="Geometric mean">geometric mean</a> of the expected returns on a series of short-term instruments:

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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle (1+i_{lt})^{n}=(1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}1})(1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}2})\cdots (1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}n}),}</annotation>

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</math></span><img src="./8f6daaa0a564b29f308b169ef2895b3bd0a71136.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:50.498ex; height:3.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle (1+i_{lt})^{n}=(1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}1})(1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}2})\cdots (1+i_{st}^{{\text{year }}n}),}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>

<p>where <i>i</i><sub><i>st</i></sub> and <i>i</i><sub><i>lt</i></sub> are the expected short-term and actual long-term interest rates (but <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle i_{st}^{{\text{year}}1}}">

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</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./30d0a78bdbac64e656111e820ac9fe05fd393ced.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:4.921ex; height:3.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle i_{st}^{{\text{year}}1}}" loading="lazy"></span> is the actual observed short-term rate for the first year).

</p><p>This theory is consistent with the observation that yields usually move together. However, it fails to explain the persistence in the shape of the yield curve.

</p><p>Shortcomings of expectations theory include that it neglects the <a href="Interest_rate_risk" title="Interest rate risk">interest rate risk</a> inherent in investing in bonds.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Liquidity_premium_theory">Liquidity premium theory</h3></div>

<p>The liquidity premium theory is an offshoot of the pure expectations theory. The liquidity premium theory asserts that long-term interest rates not only reflect investors' assumptions about future interest rates but also include a premium for holding long-term bonds (investors prefer short-term bonds to long-term bonds), called the term premium or the liquidity premium. This premium compensates investors for the added risk of having their money tied up for a longer period, including the greater price uncertainty. Because of the term premium, long-term bond yields tend to be higher than short-term yields and the yield curve slopes upward. Long-term yields are also higher not just because of the liquidity premium, but also because of the risk premium added by the risk of default from holding a security over the long term. The market expectations hypothesis is combined with the liquidity premium theory:

</p>

<msub>

</mrow>

</msub>

<msup>

</mrow>

</msup>

<msub>

</mrow>

</msub>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</msubsup>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</msubsup>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</msubsup>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle (1+i_{lt})^{n}=rp_{n}+((1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} 1})(1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} 2})\cdots (1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} n})),}</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./2a0db61c27700ed469e952bf47d95f1f436ecf35.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:56.843ex; height:3.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle (1+i_{lt})^{n}=rp_{n}+((1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} 1})(1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} 2})\cdots (1+i_{st}^{\mathrm {year} n})),}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>

<p>where <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle rp_{n}}">

<msub>

</mrow>

</msub>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle rp_{n}}</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./0324ab56fdaf634a9d247c94b7d1116a4270d0e1.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:3.437ex; height:2.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle rp_{n}}" loading="lazy"></span> is the risk premium associated with an <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {n}}">

</mrow>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {n}}</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./70b6881107a598c20a60e72fe82bc41a4a1f7f4c.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.395ex; height:1.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {n}}" loading="lazy"></span> year bond.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Preferred_habitat_theory">Preferred habitat theory</h3></div>

<p>The preferred habitat theory is a variant of the liquidity premium theory, and states that in addition to interest rate expectations, investors have distinct investment horizons and require a meaningful premium to buy bonds with maturities outside their "preferred" maturity, or habitat. Proponents of this theory believe that short-term investors are more prevalent in the fixed-income market, and therefore longer-term rates tend to be higher than short-term rates, for the most part, but short-term rates can be higher than long-term rates occasionally. This theory is consistent with both the persistence of the normal yield curve shape and the tendency of the yield curve to shift up and down while retaining its shape.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Market_segmentation_theory">Market segmentation theory</h3></div>

<p>This theory is also called the <b>segmented market hypothesis</b>. In this theory, financial instruments of different terms are not <a href="Substitute_good" title="Substitute good">substitutable</a>. As a result, the <a href="Supply_and_demand" title="Supply and demand">supply and demand</a> in the markets for short-term and long-term instruments is determined largely independently. Prospective investors decide in advance whether they need short-term or long-term instruments. If investors prefer their portfolio to be liquid, they will prefer short-term instruments to long-term instruments. Therefore, the market for short-term instruments will receive a higher demand. Higher demand for the instrument implies higher prices and lower yield. This explains the <a href="Stylized_fact" title="Stylized fact">stylized fact</a> that short-term yields are usually lower than long-term yields. This theory explains the predominance of the normal yield curve shape. However, because the supply and demand of the two markets are independent, this theory fails to explain the observed fact that yields tend to move together (i.e., upward and downward shifts in the curve).

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Historical_development_of_yield_curve_theory">Historical development of yield curve theory</h3></div>

<p>On August 15, 1971, U.S. President <a href="Richard_Nixon" title="Richard Nixon">Richard Nixon</a> announced that the U.S. dollar would no longer be based on the <a href="Gold_standard" title="Gold standard">gold standard</a>, thereby ending the <a href="Bretton_Woods_system" title="Bretton Woods system">Bretton Woods system</a> and initiating the era of <a href="Floating_exchange_rate" title="Floating exchange rate">floating exchange rates</a>.

</p><p>Floating exchange rates made life more complicated for bond traders, including those at <a href="Salomon_Brothers" title="Salomon Brothers">Salomon Brothers</a> in <a href="New_York_City" title="New York City">New York City</a>. Encouraged by <a href="Martin_L._Leibowitz" title="Martin L. Leibowitz">Marty Liebowitz</a>, traders began thinking about bond yields in new ways by the middle of the 1970s. Rather than think of each maturity (a ten-year bond, a five-year, etc.) as a separate marketplace, they began drawing a curve through all their yields. The bit nearest the present time became known as the <i>short end</i>—yields of bonds further out became, naturally, the <i>long end</i>.

</p><p>Academics had to play catch up with practitioners in this matter. One important theoretic development came from a Czech mathematician, <a href="Oldrich_Vasicek" class="mw-redirect" title="Oldrich Vasicek">Oldrich Vasicek</a>, who argued in a 1977 paper that bond prices all along the curve are driven by the short end (under risk-neutral equivalent martingale measure) and accordingly by short-term interest rates. The mathematical model for Vasicek's work was given by an <a href="Ornstein%E2%80%93Uhlenbeck_process" title="Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process">Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process</a>, but has since been discredited because the model predicts a positive probability that the short rate becomes negative and is inflexible in creating yield curves of different shapes. Vasicek's model has been superseded by many different models including the <a href="Hull%E2%80%93White_model" title="Hull–White model">Hull–White model</a> (which allows for time varying parameters in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), the <a href="Cox%E2%80%93Ingersoll%E2%80%93Ross_model" title="Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model">Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model</a>, which is a modified <a href="Bessel_process" title="Bessel process">Bessel process</a>, and the <a href="Heath%E2%80%93Jarrow%E2%80%93Morton_framework" title="Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework">Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework</a>. There are also many modifications to each of these models, but see the article on <a href="Short-rate_model" title="Short-rate model">short-rate model</a>. Another modern approach is the <a href="LIBOR_market_model" title="LIBOR market model">LIBOR market model</a>, introduced by Brace, Gatarek and Musiela in 1997 and advanced by others later. In 1996, a group of derivatives traders led by Olivier Doria (then head of swaps at Deutsche Bank) and Michele Faissola, contributed to an extension of the swap yield curves in all the major European currencies. Until then the market would give prices until 15 years maturities. The team extended the maturity of European yield curves up to 50 years (for the lira, French franc, Deutsche mark, Danish krone and many other currencies including the ecu). This innovation was a major contribution towards the issuance of long dated <a href="Zero-coupon_bond" title="Zero-coupon bond">zero-coupon bonds</a> and the creation of long dated mortgages.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Construction_of_the_full_yield_curve_from_market_data">Construction of the full yield curve from market data</h2></div>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="Bootstrapping_(finance)" title="Bootstrapping (finance)">Bootstrapping (finance)</a>, <a href="Fixed-income_attribution#Modeling_the_yield_curve" title="Fixed-income attribution">Fixed-income attribution § Modeling the yield curve</a>, and <a href="Multi-curve_framework" class="mw-redirect" title="Multi-curve framework">Multi-curve framework</a></div>

<caption><b>Typical inputs to the money market curve</b>

</caption>

</td>

<td><b>Settlement date</b>

</td>

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Cash

</td>

<td>Overnight rate

</td>

<td>5.58675

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Cash

</td>

<td>Tomorrow next rate

</td>

<td>5.59375

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Cash

</td>

<td>1m

</td>

<td>5.625

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Cash

</td>

<td>3m

</td>

<td>5.71875

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Future

</td>

<td>Dec-97

</td>

<td>5.76

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Future

</td>

<td>Mar-98

</td>

<td>5.77

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Future

</td>

<td>Jun-98

</td>

<td>5.82

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Future

</td>

<td>Sep-98

</td>

<td>5.88

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Future

</td>

<td>Dec-98

</td>

<td>6.00

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>2y

</td>

<td>6.01253

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>3y

</td>

<td>6.10823

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>4y

</td>

<td>6.16

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>5y

</td>

<td>6.22

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>7y

</td>

<td>6.32

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>10y

</td>

<td>6.42

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>15y

</td>

<td>6.56

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>20y

</td>

<td>6.56

</td></tr>

<tr>

<td>Swap

</td>

<td>30y

</td>

<td>6.56

</td></tr>

<tr>

<p>A list of standard instruments used to build a money market yield curve.

</p>

</td></tr>

<tr>

<p>The data is for lending in <a href="US_dollar" class="mw-redirect" title="US dollar">US dollar</a>, taken from October 6, 1997

</p>

</td></tr></tbody></table>

<p>The usual representation of the yield curve is in terms of a function P, defined on all future times <i>t</i>, such that P(<i>t</i>) represents the value today of receiving one unit of currency <i>t</i> years in the future. If P is defined for all future <i>t</i> then we can easily recover the yield (i.e. the annualized interest rate) for borrowing money for that period of time via the formula

</p>

<msup>

</mrow>

</mrow>

</msup>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle Y(t)=P(t)^{-1/t}-1.}</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./1f916d14e212ed0c0b752daf4ebdcf4380a7ddbb.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:20.313ex; height:3.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle Y(t)=P(t)^{-1/t}-1.}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>

<p>The significant difficulty in defining a yield curve therefore is to determine the function P(<i>t</i>). P is called the discount factor function or the zero coupon bond.

</p><p>Yield curves are built from either prices available in the <i>bond market</i> or the <i>money market</i>. Whilst the yield curves built from the bond market use prices only from a specific class of bonds (for instance bonds issued by the UK government) yield curves built from the <a href="Money_market" title="Money market">money market</a> use prices of "cash" from today's LIBOR rates, which determine the "short end" of the curve i.e. for <i>t</i> ≤ 3m, <a href="Interest_rate_future" title="Interest rate future">interest rate futures</a> which determine the midsection of the curve (3m ≤ <i>t</i> ≤ 15m) and <a href="Interest_rate_swap" title="Interest rate swap">interest rate swaps</a> which determine the "long end" (1y ≤ <i>t</i> ≤ 60y).

</p><p>The example given in the table at the right is known as a <a href="LIBOR" class="mw-redirect" title="LIBOR">LIBOR</a> curve because it is constructed using either LIBOR rates or <a href="Swap_rates" class="mw-redirect" title="Swap rates">swap rates</a>. A LIBOR curve is the most widely used interest rate curve as it represents the credit worth of private entities at about A+ rating, roughly the equivalent of commercial banks. If one substitutes the LIBOR and swap rates with government bond yields, one arrives at what is known as a government curve, usually considered the risk free interest rate curve for the underlying currency. The spread between the LIBOR (or swap) rate and the government bond yield of similar maturity is usually positive, meaning that private borrowing is at a premium above government borrowing. This spread is a measure of the difference in the risk tolerances of the lenders to the two types of borrowing. For the U. S. market, a common benchmark for such a spread is given by the so-called <a href="TED_spread" title="TED spread">TED spread</a>.

</p><p>In either case the available market data provides a matrix <i>A</i> of cash flows, each row representing a particular financial instrument and each column representing a point in time. The (<i>i</i>,<i>j</i>)-th element of the matrix represents the amount that instrument <i>i</i> will pay out on day <i>j</i>. Let the vector <i>F</i> represent today's prices of the instrument (so that the <i>i</i>-th instrument has value <i>F</i>(<i>i</i>)), then by definition of our discount factor function <i>P</i> we should have that <i>F</i> = <i>AP</i> (this is a matrix multiplication). Actually, noise in the financial markets means it is not possible to find a <i>P</i> that solves this equation exactly, and our goal becomes to find a vector <i>P</i> such that

</p>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle AP=F+\varepsilon \,}</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./5c60cc7167d2c2636f554af4e9d9215613e1a039.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.505ex; width:12.639ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle AP=F+\varepsilon \,}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \varepsilon }</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./a30c89172e5b88edbd45d3e2772c7f5e562e5173.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.083ex; height:1.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \varepsilon }" loading="lazy"></span> is as small a vector as possible (where the size of a vector might be measured by taking its <a href="Norm_(mathematics)" title="Norm (mathematics)">norm</a>, for example).

</p><p>Even if we can solve this equation, we will only have determined <i>P</i>(<i>t</i>) for those <i>t</i> which have a cash flow from one or more of the original instruments we are creating the curve from. Values for other <i>t</i> are typically determined using some sort of <a href="Interpolation" title="Interpolation">interpolation</a> scheme.

</p><p>Practitioners and researchers have suggested many ways of solving the A*P = F equation. It transpires that the most natural method – that of minimizing <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \epsilon }">

</mstyle>

</mrow>

<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \epsilon }</annotation>

</semantics>

</math></span><img src="./c3837cad72483d97bcdde49c85d3b7b859fb3fd2.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:0.944ex; height:1.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \epsilon }" loading="lazy"></span> by <a href="Least_squares_regression" class="mw-redirect" title="Least squares regression">least squares regression</a> – leads to unsatisfactory results. The large number of zeroes in the matrix <i>A</i> mean that function <i>P</i> turns out to be "bumpy".

</p><p>In their comprehensive book on interest rate modelling James and Webber note that the following techniques have been suggested to solve the problem of finding P:

</p>

<ol><li>Approximation using <a href="Lagrange_polynomials" class="mw-redirect" title="Lagrange polynomials">Lagrange polynomials</a></li>

<li>Fitting using parameterised curves (such as <a href="Spline_(mathematics)" title="Spline (mathematics)">splines</a>, the <a href="Nelson-Siegel" class="mw-redirect" title="Nelson-Siegel">Nelson-Siegel</a> family, the <a href="Fixed_income_attribution" class="mw-redirect" title="Fixed income attribution">Svensson family</a>, the exponential polynomial<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> family or the Cairns restricted-exponential family of curves). Van Deventer, Imai and Mesler summarize three different techniques for <a href="Curve_fitting" title="Curve fitting">curve fitting</a> that satisfy the maximum smoothness of either forward interest rates, zero coupon bond prices, or zero coupon bond yields</li>

<li>Local regression using <a href="Kernel_(statistics)" title="Kernel (statistics)">kernels</a></li>

<li><a href="Linear_programming" title="Linear programming">Linear programming</a></li></ol>

<p>In the money market practitioners might use different techniques to solve for different areas of the curve. For example, at the short end of the curve, where there are few cashflows, the first few elements of P may be found by <a href="Bootstrapping_(finance)" title="Bootstrapping (finance)">bootstrapping</a> from one to the next. At the long end, a regression technique with a cost function that values smoothness might be used.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Effect_on_bond_prices">Effect on bond prices</h2></div>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="Bond_valuation" title="Bond valuation">Bond valuation</a></div>

<p>There is a time dimension to the analysis of bond values. A 10-year bond at purchase becomes a 9-year bond a year later, and the year after it becomes an 8-year bond, etc. Each year the bond moves incrementally closer to maturity, resulting in lower volatility and shorter duration and demanding a lower interest rate when the yield curve is rising. Since falling rates create increasing prices, the value of a bond initially will rise as the lower rates of the shorter maturity become its new market rate. Because a bond is always anchored by its final maturity, the price at some point must change direction and fall to par value at redemption.

</p><p>A bond's market value at different times in its life can be calculated. When the yield curve is steep, the bond is predicted to have a large <a href="Capital_gain" title="Capital gain">capital gain</a> in the first years before falling in price later. When the yield curve is flat, the capital gain is predicted to be much less, and there is little variability in the bond's total returns over time.

</p><p>As market rates of interest increase or decrease, the impact is rarely the same at each point along the yield curve, i.e. the curve rarely moves up or down in parallel. Because longer-term bonds have a larger duration, a rise in rates will cause a larger capital loss for them, than for short-term bonds. But almost always, the long maturity's rate will change much less, flattening the yield curve. The greater change in rates at the short end will offset to some extent the advantage provided by the shorter bond's lower duration.

</p><p>Long duration bonds tend to be mean reverting, meaning that they readily gravitate to a long-run average. The middle of the curve (5–10 years) will see the greatest percentage gain in yields if there is anticipated inflation even if interest rates have not changed. The long-end does not move quite as much percentage-wise because of the mean reverting properties.

</p><p>The yearly 'total return' from the bond is a) the sum of the coupon's yield plus b) the capital gain from the changing valuation as it slides down the yield curve and c) any capital gain or loss from changing interest rates at that point in the yield curve.<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>

</p>

<ul><li><a href="Short-rate_model" title="Short-rate model">Short-rate model</a></li>

<li><a href="Zero_interest-rate_policy" title="Zero interest-rate policy">Zero interest-rate policy</a></li>

<li><a href="Multi-curve_framework" class="mw-redirect" title="Multi-curve framework">Multi-curve framework</a></li></ul>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2></div>

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</style><span class="citation wikicite" id="endnote_1"><b><a href="#ref_1">^</a></b></span> The New York Federal Reserve recession prediction model uses the month average 10 year yield vs the month average 3 month bond equivalent yield to compute the term spread. Therefore, intra-day and daily inversions do not count as inversions unless they lead to an inversion on a monthly average basis. In December 2018, portions of the yield curve inverted for the first time since the <a href="Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">2008–2009 recession</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However the 10-year vs 3-month portion did not invert until March 22, 2019 and it reverted to a positive slope by April 1, 2019 (i.e. only 8 days later).<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The month average of the 10-year vs 3-month (bond equivalent yield) difference reached zero basis points in May 2019. Both March and April 2019 had month-average spreads greater than zero basis points despite intra-day and daily inversions in March and April. Therefore, the table shows the 2019 inversion beginning from May 2019. Likewise, daily inversions in September 1998 did not result in negative term spreads on a month average basis and thus do not constitute a false alarm.

</p><p>2. <span class="citation wikicite" id="endnote_2"><b><a href="#ref_2">^</a></b></span> The recession prediction model stipulated that the recession began in February 2020, one month before the <a href="World_Health_Organization" title="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</a> declared <a href="COVID-19" title="COVID-19">COVID-19</a> a pandemic.

</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>

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</style><cite id="CITEREFFabozzi1996" class="citation book cs1">Fabozzi, Frank J. (1996). <i>Bond Markets, Analysis and Strategy</i> (Third ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc. p. 85. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>0-13-339151-5</bdi>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-101-ultimate-guide-110026560.html">Yield Curve 101: The Ultimate Guide for ETF Investors – Yahoo Finance</a> <a href="Yahoo_Finance" title="Yahoo Finance">Yahoo Finance</a></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation book cs1"><i>Fabozzi op cit p. 86</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation book cs1"><i>Fabozzi op cit p. 87</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFMelicher,_Ronald_and_Welshans,_Merle1988" class="citation book cs1">Melicher, Ronald and Welshans, Merle (1988). <i>Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions and Management</i> (7th ed.). Cincinnati: South-Western Publishing. pp. <span class="nowrap">490–</span>491. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>0-538-06160-X</bdi>.</cite><span class="cs1-maint citation-comment"><code class="cs1-code">{{cite book}}</code>: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)</span></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFPhillips2018" class="citation news cs1">Phillips, Matt (25 June 2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html">"What's the Yield Curve? 'A Powerful Signal of Recessions' Has Wall Street's Attention"</a>. <i>The New York Times</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/">"The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator"</a>. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. <q>This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or "term spread," to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. Here, the term spread is defined as the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates.</q></cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFButtonwood2021" class="citation news cs1">Buttonwood (June 26, 2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/06/24/a-new-phase-in-the-financial-cycle">"A new phase in the financial cycle: the Treasury-bond yield curve flattens"</a>. <i>The Economist</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">25 August</span> 2021</span>.</cite></span>

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<li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/04868cd6-d7b2-11e0-a06b-00144feabdc0.html">'Helicopter Ben' risks destroying credit creation</a>, September 6, 2011, <a href="Financial_Times" title="Financial Times">Financial Times</a>, by <a href="Bill_H._Gross" title="Bill H. Gross">Bill Gross</a></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.htm">"Campbell R. Harvey's Dissertation"</a>. <i>faculty.fuqua.duke.edu</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/">"Index of /~charvey/Term_structure"</a>. <i>faculty.fuqua.duke.edu</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFDaniel_L._Thornton2012" class="citation web cs1">Daniel L. Thornton (September 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-036.pdf">"Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Working Paper 2012-036A</i>. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">3 December</span> 2015</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-gdp-growth.aspx">"Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth"</a>. February 27, 2020<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">March 6,</span> 2020</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFEstrellaMishkin1998" class="citation journal cs1">Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. (1998). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w5379.pdf">"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Review of Economics and Statistics</i>. <b>80</b>: <span class="nowrap">45–</span>61. <a href="Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1162%2F003465398557320">10.1162/003465398557320</a>. <a href="S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:11641969">11641969</a>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150402151924/https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index/stlfsi-key">"List of Data Series Used to Construct the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index"</a>. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index/stlfsi-key">the original</a> on 2 April 2015<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2 March</span> 2015</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci/index.cfm?id=2160">"Description of Components"</a>. <i>Business Cycle Indicators</i>. The Conference Board<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2 March</span> 2015</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Arturo Estrella and Tobias Adrian, <i><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr397.pdf">FRB of New York Staff Report No. 397</a></i>, 2009</span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-18">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nber.org/cycles/">"Announcement Dates"</a>. <i>US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions</i>. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">1 March</span> 2015</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-19"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-19">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFIrwin2019" class="citation news cs1">Irwin, Neil (May 29, 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/upshot/the-bond-market-is-giving-ominous-warnings-about-the-global-economy.html">"The Bond Market Is Giving Ominous Warnings About the Global Economy"</a>. <i>The New York Times</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-20"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-20">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFGrocerPhillips2019" class="citation news cs1">Grocer, Stephen; Phillips, Matt (May 30, 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/business/bond-yield-curve-recession.html">"The Bond Market Is Trying to Tell Us Something (Worry)"</a>. <i>The New York Times</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-21"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-21">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o42z">"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity"</a>. <i>FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</i>. January 4, 1982.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-22"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-22">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Arturo Estrella, <i><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=1532309">FRB of New York Staff Report No. 421</a></i>, 2010</span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-23"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-23">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFMoulin2018" class="citation web cs1">Moulin, Serge (2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323689711">"The exponential polynomial family"</a>. <i>Research gate.net</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-24"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-24">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.retailinvestor.org/bondPrice.html">"Retail Investor .org : Bond Valuation Over Its Life"</a>. <i>www.retailinvestor.org</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-25"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-25">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFCollins" class="citation web cs1">Collins, Jim. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/12/04/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-sort-of-and-that-is-a-sell-signal-for-stocks/#5d3dd3a3eaae">"The Yield Curve Just Inverted--Sort Of--And That Is A Sell Signal For Stocks"</a>. <i>Forbes</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-26"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-26">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield">"Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates"</a>. <i>US Treasury</i>.</cite></span>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-27"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-27">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFBarrettGreifeld2019" class="citation news cs1">Barrett, Emily; Greifeld, Katherine (22 March 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007">"Treasuries Buying Wave Triggers First Curve Inversion Since 2007"</a>. <i>Bloomberg.com</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 March</span> 2019</span>.</cite></span>

</li>

</ol></div></div>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Books">Books</h3></div>

<ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJ_H_M_Darbyshire2017" class="citation book cs1">J H M Darbyshire (2017). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.tradinginterestrates.com"><i>Pricing and Trading Interest Rate Derivatives</i></a> (2nd ed. 2017 ed.). Aitch and Dee Ltd. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0995455528</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFLeif_B.G._AndersenVladimir_V._Piterbarg2010" class="citation book cs1">Leif B.G. Andersen & Vladimir V. Piterbarg (2010). <i>Interest Rate Modeling</i>. Atlantic Financial Press. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-9844221-0-4</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFJessica_JamesNick_Webber2001" class="citation book cs1">Jessica James & Nick Webber (2001). <i>Interest Rate Modelling</i>. John Wiley & Sons. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-471-97523-6</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFRiccardo_Rebonato1998" class="citation book cs1"><a href="Riccardo_Rebonato" title="Riccardo Rebonato">Riccardo Rebonato</a> (1998). <i>Interest-Rate Option Models</i>. John Wiley & Sons. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-471-97958-6</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFNicholas_Dunbar2000" class="citation book cs1">Nicholas Dunbar (2000). <span class="id-lock-registration" title="Free registration required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/inventingmoneyst00dunb"><i>Inventing Money</i></a></span>. John Wiley & Sons. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-471-89999-0</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFN._Anderson,_F._Breedon,_M._Deacon,_A._Derry_and_M._Murphy1996" class="citation book cs1">N. Anderson, F. Breedon, M. Deacon, A. Derry and M. Murphy (1996). <i>Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve</i>. John Wiley & Sons. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-471-96207-6</bdi>.</cite><span class="cs1-maint citation-comment"><code class="cs1-code">{{cite book}}</code>: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)</span></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFAndrew_J.G._Cairns2004" class="citation book cs1">Andrew J.G. Cairns (2004). <i>Interest Rate Models – An Introduction</i>. Princeton University Press. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-691-11894-9</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFJohn_C._Hull1989" class="citation book cs1">John C. Hull (1989). <span class="id-lock-registration" title="Free registration required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/optionsfuturesot00john"><i>Options, Futures and Other Derivatives</i></a></span>. Prentice Hall. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-13-015822-2</bdi>.</cite> See in particular the section <i>Theories of the term structure</i> (section 4.7 in the fourth edition).</li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFDamiano_BrigoFabio_Mercurio2001" class="citation book cs1">Damiano Brigo; Fabio Mercurio (2001). <i>Interest Rate Models – Theory and Practice</i>. Springer. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-3-540-41772-9</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFDonald_R._van_DeventerKenji_ImaiMark_Mesler2004" class="citation book cs1">Donald R. van Deventer; Kenji Imai; Mark Mesler (2004). <i>Advanced Financial Risk Management, An Integrated Approach to Credit Risk and Interest Rate Risk Management</i>. John Wiley & Sons. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-470-82126-8</bdi>.</cite></li></ul>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Articles">Articles</h3></div>

<ul><li>Ruben D Cohen (2006) "A VaR-Based Model for the Yield Curve <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://rdcohen.50megs.com/YieldCurveabstract.htm">[download]</a>" <i>Wilmott Magazine</i>, May Issue.</li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFLin_Chen1996" class="citation book cs1">Lin Chen (1996). <i>Stochastic Mean and Stochastic Volatility – A Three-Factor Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Application to the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives</i>. Blackwell Publishers.</cite></li>

<li>Paul F. Cwik (2005) "The Inverted Yield Curve and the Economic Downturn <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://nppe.eu/journal/article/view/5/5">[download]</a>" <i>New Perspectives on Political Economy</i>, Volume 1, Number 1, 2005, pp. 1–37.</li>

<li>Roger J.-B. Wets, Stephen W. Bianchi, "Term and Volatility Structures" in <cite id="CITEREFStavros_A._ZeniosWilliam_T._Ziemba2006" class="citation book cs1">Stavros A. Zenios & William T. Ziemba (2006). <i>Handbook of Asset and Liability Management, Volume 1</i>. North-Holland. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0-444-50875-1</bdi>.</cite></li>

<li><cite id="CITEREFHaganWest,_G.2006" class="citation journal cs1">Hagan, P.; West, G. (June 2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.finmod.co.za/Hagan_West_curves_AMF.pdf">"Interpolation Methods for Curve Construction"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Applied Mathematical Finance</i>. <b>13</b> (2): <span class="nowrap">89–</span>129. <a href="CiteSeerX_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="CiteSeerX (identifier)">CiteSeerX</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.529.9594">10.1.1.529.9594</a></span>. <a href="Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1080%2F13504860500396032">10.1080/13504860500396032</a>. <a href="S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:17232942">17232942</a>.</cite></li>

<li>Rise in Rates Jolts Markets – Fed's Effort to Revive Economy Is Complicated by Fresh Jump in Borrowing Costs author = Liz Rappaport. Wall Street Journal. May 28, 2009. p. A.1</li></ul>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2></div>

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<div class="side-box-text plainlist">Wikimedia Commons has media related to <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Yield_curves_(economics)" class="extiw external" title="commons:Category:Yield curves (economics)">Yield curves (economics)</a></span>.</div></div>

</div>

<ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html/">Euro area yield curves</a> – European Central Bank website</li>

<li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html">Dynamic Yield Curve</a> – This chart shows the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time.</li>

<li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y">Yield curve: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity, daily since June 1976, via FRED</a></li></ul>

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</style><div id="Bond_market189" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Bond_market" title="Bond market">Bond market</a></div></th></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div>

<li><a href="Debenture" title="Debenture">Debenture</a></li>

<li><a href="Fixed_income" title="Fixed income">Fixed income</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Types of bonds by issuer</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Agency_debt" title="Agency debt">Agency bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Corporate_bond" title="Corporate bond">Corporate bond</a>

<ul><li><a href="Senior_debt" title="Senior debt">Senior debt</a></li>

<li><a href="Subordinated_debt" title="Subordinated debt">Subordinated debt</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Distressed_securities" title="Distressed securities">Distressed debt</a></li>

<li><a href="Government_bond" title="Government bond">Government bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Infrastructure_bond" title="Infrastructure bond">Infrastructure bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Municipal_bond" title="Municipal bond">Municipal bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Global_bond" title="Global bond">Global bond</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Types of bonds by payout</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Accrual_bond" title="Accrual bond">Accrual bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Auction_rate_security" title="Auction rate security">Auction rate security</a></li>

<li><a href="Commercial_paper" title="Commercial paper">Commercial paper</a></li>

<li><a href="Consol_(bond)" title="Consol (bond)">Consol</a></li>

<li><a href="Convertible_bond" title="Convertible bond">Convertible bond</a>

<ul><li><a href="Contingent_convertible_bond" title="Contingent convertible bond">Contingent</a></li>

<li><a href="Reverse_convertible_securities" title="Reverse convertible securities">Reverse</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Exchangeable_bond" title="Exchangeable bond">Exchangeable bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Extendible_bond" title="Extendible bond">Extendible bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Fixed_rate_bond" class="mw-redirect" title="Fixed rate bond">Fixed rate bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Floating_rate_note" title="Floating rate note">Floating rate note</a>

<ul><li><a href="Inverse_floating_rate_note" title="Inverse floating rate note">Inverse</a></li>

<li><a href="Inflation-indexed_bond" title="Inflation-indexed bond">Inflation-indexed</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="High-yield_debt" title="High-yield debt">High-yield debt</a></li>

<li><a href="Lottery_bond" title="Lottery bond">Lottery bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Perpetual_bond" title="Perpetual bond">Perpetual bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Zero-coupon_bond" title="Zero-coupon bond">Zero-coupon bond</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Bond_option" title="Bond option">Bond options</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Callable_bond" title="Callable bond">Callable bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Convertible_bond" title="Convertible bond">Convertible bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Embedded_option" title="Embedded option">Embedded option</a></li>

<li><a href="Exchangeable_bond" title="Exchangeable bond">Exchangeable bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Extendible_bond" title="Extendible bond">Extendible bond</a></li>

<li><a href="Puttable_bond" title="Puttable bond">Puttable bond</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Bond_valuation" title="Bond valuation">Bond valuation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Clean_price" title="Clean price">Clean price</a></li>

<li><a href="Bond_convexity" title="Bond convexity">Convexity</a></li>

<li><a href="Coupon_(finance)" title="Coupon (finance)">Coupon</a></li>

<li><a href="Yield_spread" title="Yield spread">Credit spread</a></li>

<li><a href="Current_yield" title="Current yield">Current yield</a></li>

<li><a href="Dirty_price" title="Dirty price">Dirty price</a></li>

<li><a href="Bond_duration" class="mw-redirect" title="Bond duration">Duration</a></li>

<li><a href="I-spread" title="I-spread">I-spread</a></li>

<li><a href="Mortgage_yield" title="Mortgage yield">Mortgage yield</a></li>

<li><a href="Nominal_yield" title="Nominal yield">Nominal yield</a></li>

<li><a href="Option-adjusted_spread" title="Option-adjusted spread">Option-adjusted spread</a></li>

<li><a href="Weighted-average_life" title="Weighted-average life">Weighted-average life</a></li>

<li><a href="Yield_spread" title="Yield spread">Yield spread</a></li>

<li><a href="Yield_to_maturity" title="Yield to maturity">Yield to maturity</a></li>

<li><a href="Z-spread" title="Z-spread">Z-spread</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Securitized products</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Asset-backed_security" title="Asset-backed security">Asset-backed security</a></li>

<li><a href="Collateralized_debt_obligation" title="Collateralized debt obligation">Collateralized debt obligation</a></li>

<li><a href="Collateralized_mortgage_obligation" title="Collateralized mortgage obligation">Collateralized mortgage obligation</a></li>

<li><a href="Commercial_mortgage-backed_security" title="Commercial mortgage-backed security">Commercial mortgage-backed security</a></li>

<li><a href="Mortgage-backed_security" title="Mortgage-backed security">Mortgage-backed security</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Institutions</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Commercial_Mortgage_Securities_Association" title="Commercial Mortgage Securities Association">Commercial Mortgage Securities Association</a> (CMSA)</li>

<li><a href="International_Capital_Market_Association" title="International Capital Market Association">International Capital Market Association</a> (ICMA)</li>

<li><a href="Securities_Industry_and_Financial_Markets_Association" title="Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association">Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association</a> (SIFMA)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="navbox-styles"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Investment_management384" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Investment_management384" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Investment_management" title="Investment management">Investment management</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Investment_fund" title="Investment fund">Investment <br>fund<br>structures</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Common_contractual_fund" title="Common contractual fund">Common contractual fund</a> (CCF)</li>

<li><a href="Discretionary_investment_management" title="Discretionary investment management">Discretionary investment management</a></li>

<li><a href="Exchange-traded_fund" title="Exchange-traded fund">Exchange-traded fund</a> (ETF)</li>

<li><i><a href="Fonds_commun_de_placement" title="Fonds commun de placement">Fonds commun de placement</a></i> (FCP)</li>

<li><a href="Fund_of_funds" title="Fund of funds">Fund of funds</a></li>

<li><a href="Index_fund" title="Index fund">Index fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Investment_trust" title="Investment trust">Investment trust</a></li>

<li><a href="Hedge_fund" title="Hedge fund">Hedge fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Labour-sponsored_venture_capital_corporation" title="Labour-sponsored venture capital corporation">Labour-sponsored venture capital corporation</a></li>

<li><a href="Listed_investment_company" title="Listed investment company">Listed investment company</a></li>

<li><a href="Mutual_fund" title="Mutual fund">Mutual fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Offshore_fund" title="Offshore fund">Offshore fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Open-ended_fund_company" title="Open-ended fund company">Open-ended fund company</a></li>

<li><a href="Open-ended_investment_company" title="Open-ended investment company">Open-ended investment company</a></li>

<li><a href="Pension_fund" title="Pension fund">Pension fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Private_equity_fund" title="Private equity fund">Private equity fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Qualifying_investor_alternative_investment_fund" title="Qualifying investor alternative investment fund">Qualifying investor alternative investment fund</a> (QIAIF)</li>

<li><a href="Real_estate_investment_trust" title="Real estate investment trust">Real estate investment trust</a> (REIT)</li>

<li><a href="Royalty_trust" title="Royalty trust">Royalty trust</a></li>

<li><a href="Short-term_investment_fund" title="Short-term investment fund">Short-term investment fund</a></li>

<li><a href="SICAV" title="SICAV">SICAV</a></li>

<li><a href="Split_capital_investment_trust" title="Split capital investment trust">Split capital investment trust</a></li>

<li><a href="Tax_transparent_fund" title="Tax transparent fund">Tax transparent fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Umbrella_fund" title="Umbrella fund">Umbrella fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Unit_investment_trust" title="Unit investment trust">Unit investment trust</a></li>

<li><a href="Unit_trust" title="Unit trust">Unit trust</a></li>

<li><a href="Unitised_insurance_fund" title="Unitised insurance fund">Unitised insurance fund</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Investment styles</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Active_management" title="Active management">Active</a> / <a href="Passive_management" title="Passive management">passive management</a></li>

<li><a href="Hedge_fund" title="Hedge fund">Hedge fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Impact_investing" title="Impact investing">Impact investing</a></li>

<li><a href="Manager_of_managers_investment" title="Manager of managers investment">Manager of managers</a></li>

<li><a href="Social_finance" title="Social finance">Social finance</a></li>

<li><a href="Socially_responsible_investing" title="Socially responsible investing">Socially responsible investing</a></li>

<li><a href="Social_trading" title="Social trading">Social trading</a></li>

<li><a href="Thematic_investing" title="Thematic investing">Thematic investing</a></li>

<li><a href="Value_investing" title="Value investing">Value</a> / <a href="Growth_investing" title="Growth investing">growth investing</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Terminology</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Closed-end_fund" title="Closed-end fund">Closed-end fund</a></li>

<li><a href="Fund_governance" title="Fund governance">Fund governance</a></li>

<li><a href="Institutional_investor" title="Institutional investor">Institutional investor</a></li>

<li><a href="Net_asset_value" title="Net asset value">Net asset value</a></li>

<li><a href="Performance_fee" title="Performance fee">Performance fee</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Arbitrage_pricing_theory" title="Arbitrage pricing theory">Arbitrage pricing theory</a></li>

<li><a href="Efficient-market_hypothesis" title="Efficient-market hypothesis">Efficient-market hypothesis</a></li>

<li><a href="Fixed_income" title="Fixed income">Fixed income</a> (<a href="Duration_(finance)" title="Duration (finance)">Duration</a>, <a href="Bond_convexity" title="Bond convexity">Convexity</a>)</li>

<li><a href="Martingale_pricing" title="Martingale pricing">Martingale pricing</a></li>

<li><a href="Modern_portfolio_theory" title="Modern portfolio theory">Modern portfolio theory</a></li>

<li><a href="Noisy_market_hypothesis" title="Noisy market hypothesis">Noisy market hypothesis</a></li>

</ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Related topics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Alternative_investment" title="Alternative investment">Alternative investment</a></li>

<li><a href="Commodity_pool_operator" title="Commodity pool operator">Commodity pool operator</a></li>

<li><a href="Robo-advisor" title="Robo-advisor">Robo-advisor</a></li>

<li><a href="Returns-based_style_analysis" title="Returns-based style analysis">Returns-based style analysis</a></li>

<li><a href="Traditional_investments" title="Traditional investments">Traditional investments</a></li>

<li><a href="Undertakings_for_Collective_Investment_in_Transferable_Securities_Directive_2009" title="Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities Directive 2009">UCITS</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Category"></span></span> Category

<span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="List-Class article"></span></span> <a href="List_of_asset_management_firms" title="List of asset management firms">List</a></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="navbox-styles"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Economic_history_of_the_United_States_and_Commonwealth_of_Nations_countries663" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Economic_history_of_the_United_States_and_Commonwealth_of_Nations_countries663" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Economic_history_of_the_United_States" title="Economic history of the United States">Economic history of the United States</a> and <a href="Member_states_of_the_Commonwealth_of_Nations" title="Member states of the Commonwealth of Nations">Commonwealth of Nations countries</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Commercial_revolution" title="Commercial revolution">Commercial revolution</a><br>(1000–1760)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Great_Slump_(15th_century)" title="Great Slump (15th century)">Great Slump</a> (1430–1490)</li>

<li><a href="Financial_Revolution" title="Financial Revolution">Financial Revolution</a> (1690–1800)</li>

<li><a href="War_of_the_Spanish_Succession" title="War of the Spanish Succession">Slump of 1706</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Frost_of_1709" title="Great Frost of 1709">Great Frost of 1709</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Industrial_Revolution" title="Industrial Revolution">1st Industrial Revolution</a>/<br><a href="Market_Revolution" title="Market Revolution">Market Revolution</a><br>(1760–1870)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">British credit crisis of 1772–1773</a>

<ul><li>1772–1774; <a href="British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773#Effects_in_London" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">England</a></li>

<li><a href="British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773#Scotland" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">Scotland</a></li>

<li><a href="British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">American Colonies</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">Panic of 1785</a> (1785–1788)</li>

<li><a href="Copper_Panic_of_1789" title="Copper Panic of 1789">Copper Panic of 1789</a>/<a href="Panic_of_1792" title="Panic of 1792">Panic of 1792</a> (1789–1793)</li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1796%E2%80%931797" title="Panic of 1796–1797">Panic of 1796–1797</a> (1796–1799)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1802–1804 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">Depression of 1807</a> (1807–1810)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1812 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Post-Napoleonic_Depression" title="Post-Napoleonic Depression">Post-Napoleonic Depression</a> (1815–1821)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1822–23 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1825" title="Panic of 1825">Panic of 1825</a> (1825–1826)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1828–29 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Early_recessions_and_crises_(1785–1836)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1833–34 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1837" title="Panic of 1837">Panic of 1837</a> (1836–1838 and 1839–1843)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1845–46 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1847" title="Panic of 1847">Panic of 1847</a> (1847–1848)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1853–54 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1857" title="Panic of 1857">Panic of 1857</a> (1857–1858)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1860–61 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_the_American_Civil_War" title="Economic history of the American Civil War">U.S. Civil War economy</a> (1861–1865)</li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1866" title="Panic of 1866">Panic of 1866</a> (1865–1867)</li>

<li><a href="Black_Friday_(1869)" title="Black Friday (1869)">Black Friday</a> (1869–1870)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Gilded_Age" title="Gilded Age">Gilded Age</a>/<br><a href="Second_Industrial_Revolution" title="Second Industrial Revolution">2nd Industrial Revolution</a><br>(1870–1914)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Long_Depression" title="Long Depression">Long Depression</a>/<a href="The_Great_Deflation" title="The Great Deflation">Great Deflation</a>

<ul><li>1873–1879; <a href="Long_Depression#United_Kingdom" title="Long Depression">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Long_Depression#United_States" title="Long Depression">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Depression_of_1882%E2%80%931885" title="Depression of 1882–1885">Depression of 1882–1885</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1887–88 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Baring_crisis" title="Baring crisis">Baring crisis</a> (1890–1891)</li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1893" title="Panic of 1893">Panic of 1893</a> (1893–1897)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1899–1900 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1901" title="Panic of 1901">Panic of 1901</a> (1902–1904)</li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1907" title="Panic of 1907">Panic of 1907</a> (1907–1908)</li>

<li><a href="Panic_of_1910%E2%80%9311" title="Panic of 1910–11">Panic of 1910–11</a> (1910–1912)</li>

<li><a href="Financial_crisis_of_1914" title="Financial crisis of 1914">Financial crisis of 1914</a> (1913–14)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">World War home fronts/<br><a href="Interwar_period" title="Interwar period">Interwar period</a><br>(1914–1945)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Home_front_during_World_War_I" title="Home front during World War I">World War I home front</a>

<ul><li><a href="Australia_in_World_War_I#Home_front" title="Australia in World War I">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Canada_in_World_War_I#Home_Front" title="Canada in World War I">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_the_United_Kingdom_during_the_First_World_War" title="History of the United Kingdom during the First World War">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="United_States_home_front_during_World_War_I" title="United States home front during World War I">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Post%E2%80%93World_War_I_recession" title="Post–World War I recession">Post–World War I recession</a> (1918–1919)</li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1920%E2%80%931921" title="Recession of 1920–1921">Recession of 1920–1921</a></li>

<li><a href="Roaring_Twenties" title="Roaring Twenties">Roaring Twenties</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1923–1924 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Free_Banking_Era_to_the_Great_Depression_(1836–1929)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1926–1927 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression" title="Great Depression">Great Depression</a>

<ul><li>1929–1939; <a href="Great_Depression_in_Australia" title="Great Depression in Australia">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression_in_Canada" title="Great Depression in Canada">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression_in_India" title="Great Depression in India">India</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression_in_South_Africa" title="Great Depression in South Africa">South Africa</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="Great Depression in the United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Depression_in_the_United_States" title="Great Depression in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1937%E2%80%931938" title="Recession of 1937–1938">Recession of 1937–1938</a></li>

<li><a href="Home_front_during_World_War_II" title="Home front during World War II">World War II home front</a>

<ul><li><a href="Australian_home_front_during_World_War_II" title="Australian home front during World War II">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Canada_in_World_War_II#Home_front" title="Canada in World War II">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="British_home_front_during_World_War_II" title="British home front during World War II">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="United_States_home_front_during_World_War_II" title="United States home front during World War II">United States</a></li></ul></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_economic_expansion" title="Post–World War II economic expansion">Post–WWII expansion</a>/<br><a href="Stagflation" title="Stagflation">1970s stagflation</a><br>(1945–1982)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Great_Depression_onward_(1929–present)" title="List of recessions in the United States">1945 recession</a></li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1949" title="Recession of 1949">Recession of 1949</a> (1948–1949)</li>

<li><a href="Four_Asian_Tigers" title="Four Asian Tigers">Hong Kong and Singapore Asian Tiger expansions</a> (1950–1990)</li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_Canada" title="List of recessions in Canada">Recession of 1951</a></li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1953" title="Recession of 1953">Recession of 1953</a> (1953–1954)</li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1958" title="Recession of 1958">Recession of 1958</a> (1957–1958)</li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961" title="Recession of 1960–1961">Recession of 1960–1961</a></li>

<li><a href="Recession_of_1969%E2%80%931970" title="Recession of 1969–1970">Recession of 1969–1970</a></li>

<li><a href="1973%E2%80%931975_recession" title="1973–1975 recession">1973–1975 recession</a>

<ul><li><a href="1973%E2%80%931975_recession#United_Kingdom" title="1973–1975 recession">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="1973%E2%80%931975_recession#United_States" title="1973–1975 recession">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">Early 1980s recession</a>

<ul><li>1980–1982; <a href="Early_1980s_recession#Canada" title="Early 1980s recession">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_1980s_recession#United_Kingdom" title="Early 1980s recession">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_1980s_recession_in_the_United_States" title="Early 1980s recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="Information_Age" title="Information Age">Computer Age</a>/<br><a href="Second_Gilded_Age" title="Second Gilded Age">Second Gilded Age</a><br>(1982–present)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Great_Moderation" title="Great Moderation">Great Moderation</a> (1982–2007)</li>

<li><a href="Early_1990s_recession" title="Early 1990s recession">Early 1990s recession</a>

<ul><li>1990–1991; <a href="Early_1990s_recession_in_Australia" title="Early 1990s recession in Australia">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_1990s_recession#Canada" title="Early 1990s recession">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_1990s_recession#United_Kingdom" title="Early 1990s recession">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_1990s_recession_in_the_United_States" title="Early 1990s recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="1990s_United_States_boom" title="1990s United States boom">1990s United States boom</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_liberalisation_in_India" title="Economic liberalisation in India">1990s India economic boom</a></li>

<li><a href="1997_Asian_financial_crisis" title="1997 Asian financial crisis">1997 Asian financial crisis</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_2000s_recession" title="Early 2000s recession">Early 2000s recession</a> (2001)</li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">Great Recession</a>

<ul><li>2007–2009; <a href="Great_Recession_in_Oceania#Australia" title="Great Recession in Oceania">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Asia#Bangladesh" title="Great Recession in Asia">Bangladesh</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_the_Americas#Canada" title="Great Recession in the Americas">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Asia#India" title="Great Recession in Asia">India</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Asia#Malysia" title="Great Recession in Asia">Malaysia</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Oceania#New_Zealand" title="Great Recession in Oceania">New Zealand</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Asia#Pakistan" title="Great Recession in Asia">Pakistan</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Africa" title="Great Recession in Africa">South Africa</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Asia#Sri_Lanka" title="Great Recession in Asia">Sri Lanka</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_Europe#United_Kingdom" title="Great Recession in Europe">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Great_Recession_in_the_United_States" title="Great Recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Tiger_Cub_Economies" title="Tiger Cub Economies">Malaysia Tiger Cub expansion</a> (2010s)</li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession" title="COVID-19 recession">COVID-19 recession</a>

<ul><li>2020–2022; <a href="COVID-19_recession#Australia" title="COVID-19 recession">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession#Bangladesh" title="COVID-19 recession">Bangladesh</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession#Belize" title="COVID-19 recession">Belize</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession#Botswana" title="COVID-19 recession">Botswana</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Canada" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada">Canada</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_India" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India">India</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Malaysia" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia">Malaysia</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession#Namibia" title="COVID-19 recession">Namibia</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand">New Zealand</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_pandemic_in_Singapore#Economic_impact" title="COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore">Singapore</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States">United States</a></li>

<li><a href="COVID-19_recession#Zambia" title="COVID-19 recession">Zambia</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="List of recessions in the United Kingdom">2023 recession</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Countries and sectors</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Economic_history_of_Australia" title="Economic history of Australia">Australia</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Canada" title="Economic history of Canada">Canada</a>

<ul><li><a href="History_of_agriculture_in_Canada" title="History of agriculture in Canada">agriculture</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_Canadian_currencies" title="History of Canadian currencies">currencies</a></li>

<li><a href="Early_Canadian_banking_system" title="Early Canadian banking system">early banking system</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_Canada" title="List of recessions in Canada">list of recessions</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_the_petroleum_industry_in_Canada" title="History of the petroleum industry in Canada">petroleum industry</a></li>

<li><a href="Technological_and_industrial_history_of_Canada" title="Technological and industrial history of Canada">technological and industrial</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Ghana" title="Economic history of Ghana">Ghana</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_India" title="Economic history of India">India</a>

<ul><li><a href="History_of_agriculture_in_the_Indian_subcontinent" title="History of agriculture in the Indian subcontinent">agriculture</a></li>

<li><a href="Economy_of_India_under_Company_rule" title="Economy of India under Company rule">Company rule</a></li>

<li><a href="Economy_of_India_under_the_British_Raj" title="Economy of India under the British Raj">British Raj</a></li>

<li><a href="De-industrialisation_of_India" title="De-industrialisation of India">Deindustrialisation</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Malaysia" title="Economic history of Malaysia">Malaysia</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_New_Zealand" title="Economic history of New Zealand">New Zealand</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Nigeria" title="Economic history of Nigeria">Nigeria</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Pakistan" title="Economic history of Pakistan">Pakistan</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_South_Africa" title="Economic history of South Africa">South Africa</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Uganda" title="Economic history of Uganda">Uganda</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_the_United_Kingdom" title="Economic history of the United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a>

<ul><li><a href="British_Agricultural_Revolution" title="British Agricultural Revolution">Agricultural Revolution</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_banking_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="History of banking in the United Kingdom">history of banking</a></li>

<li><a href="Economy_of_the_British_Empire" title="Economy of the British Empire">British Empire</a></li>

<li><a href="Interwar_unemployment_and_poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="Interwar unemployment and poverty in the United Kingdom">Interwar unemployment and poverty</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="List of recessions in the United Kingdom">list of recessions</a></li>

<li><a href="Economy_of_England_in_the_Middle_Ages" title="Economy of England in the Middle Ages">Middle Ages England</a>/<a href="Economics_of_English_agriculture_in_the_Middle_Ages" title="Economics of English agriculture in the Middle Ages">agriculture</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Ireland" title="Economic history of Ireland">pre-Republic Ireland</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Scotland" title="Economic history of Scotland">Scotland</a>/<a href="History_of_agriculture_in_Scotland" title="History of agriculture in Scotland">agriculture</a>/<a href="Economy_of_Scotland_in_the_Middle_Ages" title="Economy of Scotland in the Middle Ages">Middle Ages</a>/<a href="Industrial_Revolution_in_Scotland" title="Industrial Revolution in Scotland">Industrial Revolution</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_trade_unions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="History of trade unions in the United Kingdom">trade unions</a></li>

<li><a href="Economy%2C_industry%2C_and_trade_of_the_Victorian_era" title="Economy, industry, and trade of the Victorian era">Victorian era</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Wales" title="Economic history of Wales">Wales</a>/<a href="Industrial_Revolution_in_Wales" title="Industrial Revolution in Wales">Industrial Revolution</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_the_United_States" title="Economic history of the United States">United States</a>

<ul><li><a href="History_of_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="History of agriculture in the United States">agriculture</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_banking_in_the_United_States" title="History of banking in the United States">banking</a></li>

<li><a href="American_business_history" title="American business history">business</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_central_banking_in_the_United_States" title="History of central banking in the United States">central banking</a></li>

<li><a href="Industrial_Revolution_in_the_United_States" title="Industrial Revolution in the United States">Industrial Revolution</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_investment_banking_in_the_United_States" title="History of investment banking in the United States">investment banking</a></li>

<li><a href="Labor_history_of_the_United_States" title="Labor history of the United States">labor</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States" title="List of economic expansions in the United States">list of economic expansions</a></li>

<li><a href="List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">list of recessions</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_the_lumber_industry_in_the_United_States" title="History of the lumber industry in the United States">lumber industry</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_monetary_policy_in_the_United_States" title="History of monetary policy in the United States">monetary policy</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_the_petroleum_industry_in_the_United_States" title="History of the petroleum industry in the United States">petroleum industry</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_tariffs_in_the_United_States" title="History of tariffs in the United States">tariffs</a></li>

<li><a href="Technological_and_industrial_history_of_the_United_States" title="Technological and industrial history of the United States">technological and industrial</a></li>

<li><a href="History_of_the_United_States_dollar" title="History of the United States dollar">United States dollar</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Economic_history_of_Zimbabwe" title="Economic history of Zimbabwe">Zimbabwe</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Related topics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><a href="Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">Aggregate demand</a>/<a href="Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">Supply</a>

<ul><li><a href="Effective_demand" title="Effective demand">Effective demand</a></li>

<li><a href="General_glut" title="General glut">General glut</a></li>

<li><a href="AD%E2%80%93AS_model" title="AD–AS model">Model</a></li>

<li><a href="Overproduction" title="Overproduction">Overproduction</a></li>

<li><a href="Paradox_of_thrift" title="Paradox of thrift">Paradox of thrift</a></li>

<li><a href="Nominal_rigidity" title="Nominal rigidity">Price-and-wage stickiness</a></li>

<li><a href="Underconsumption" title="Underconsumption">Underconsumption</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">Business cycle</a></li>

<li><a href="Credit_cycle" title="Credit cycle">Credit cycle</a></li>

<li><a href="Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a>/<a href="Inflation" title="Inflation">Inflation</a>

<ul><li><a href="Chronic_inflation" title="Chronic inflation">Chronic</a></li>

<li><a href="Classical_dichotomy" title="Classical dichotomy">Classical dichotomy</a></li>

<li><a href="Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li>

<li><a href="Money_supply" title="Money supply">Money supply</a>/<a href="Demand_for_money" title="Demand for money">demand</a></li>

<li><a href="Neutrality_of_money" title="Neutrality of money">Neutrality of money</a></li>

<li><a href="Price_level" title="Price level">Price level</a></li>

<li><a href="Real_versus_nominal_value_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Real versus nominal value (economics)">Real and nominal values</a></li>

<li><a href="Velocity_of_money" title="Velocity of money">Velocity of money</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Economic_expansion" title="Economic expansion">Expansion</a>

<ul><li><a href="Economic_miracle" title="Economic miracle">Miracle</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_recovery" title="Economic recovery">Recovery</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_stagnation" title="Economic stagnation">Stagnation</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate</a>

<ul><li><a href="Nominal_interest_rate" title="Nominal interest rate">Nominal interest rate</a></li>

<li><a href="Real_interest_rate" title="Real interest rate">Real interest rate</a></li>

<li>/<a href="Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">Inverted</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Recession" title="Recession">Recession</a>

<ul><li><a href="Balance_sheet_recession" title="Balance sheet recession">Balance sheet</a></li>

<li><a href="Economic_depression" title="Economic depression">Depression</a></li>

<li><a href="Global_recession" title="Global recession">Global</a></li>

<li><a href="Rolling_recession" title="Rolling recession">Rolling</a></li>

<li><a href="Recession_shapes" title="Recession shapes">Shapes</a></li>

<li><a href="Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Shock_(economics)" title="Shock (economics)">Shock</a>

<ul><li><a href="Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand</a></li>

<li><a href="Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply</a></li></ul></li>

<li><a href="Unemployment" title="Unemployment">Unemployment</a>

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This article is issued from <a class="external text" title="Last edited on 2025-07-28" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?title=Yield_curve&oldid=1303025617">Wikipedia</a>. The text is available under <a class="external text" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en">Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0</a> unless otherwise noted. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

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